Forecasting the technological development of the falcon launch vehicles using a mathematical modeling approach

Abstract

The rapid advancement of private aerospace initiatives has intensified the need for strategic forecasting of launch vehicle technologies. This study presents a mathematical projection of the technological evolution of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets over the period 2025–2030. In light of increasing global reliance on reusable launch systems, the research addresses the current gap in quantitative forecasting models tailored to specific vehicle platforms. Five critical factors were identified: reusability technology, financial investment, volume of scientific research, technical innovation index, and expert assessments. Each variable is modeled using appropriate mathematical functions, and their relative influence is weighted based on literature review and expert judgment. The resulting compound model calculates annual technological advancement scores for both launch systems. Additionally, the study evaluates the economic efficiency of these developments and explores their potential implications for emerging space programs in developing countries, particularly Uzbekistan. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, engineers, and investors aiming to optimize long-term strategic planning in the rapidly evolving space industry.