Analysis of annual changes in freight turnover of road transport using time series model

Abstract

This article presents a statistical analysis of the volume of freight turnover in automobile transport for
the period 2010–2023. The analysis was performed using Minitab 17 software, with linear and quadratic
trend models constructed and their accuracies compared. Additionally, the autocorrelation of model
residuals was examined, and a forecast of freight turnover volume for 2024–2026 was made. The results
indicate an increasing annual growth trend in freight volume. These results are of great importance for
the development of transport infrastructure, the improvement of logistics systems, and the identification
of investment directions. During the analysis, the time dynamics of the variables were thoroughly studied,
and statistically grounded conclusions were drawn. The findings enabled the formulation of practical
recommendations that can be applied in economic forecasting.